Business cycle dating committee wiki

CAMBRIDGE July 17 -- The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in March 2001 and the beginning of an expansion.

At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U. The recession lasted 8 months, which is slightly less than average for recessions since World War II.

An Excel spreadsheet containing the data and the figures for many of the major indicators of economic activity considered by the committee is available at that page as well. Hall, Stanford University (chair); Martin Feldstein, NBER President; Jeffrey A. Romer, University of California, Berkeley; and Victor Zarnowitz, the Conference Board.

Q: Why did the committee wait so long before identifying a trough?

Based on this information, the committee concluded that the economy reached a trough in November.

The NBER's practice has been that if economic activity is roughly flat at the end of a recession or expansion, the turning point is placed at the end of the flat period.

First, personal income, employment, and industrial production were all substantially lower in October and November than in September.

Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month.All the major indicators of economic activity were generally flat or declining through September 2001.Real GDP then grew at a substantial rate from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2001 and has continued growing since then.Two other indicators the committee focuses on-payroll employment and industrial production-remain well below their pre-recession peaks.Indeed, the most recent data indicate that employment has not begun to recover at all.

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